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A flurry of iPhone market outlook stories reveals Apple’s juggernaut handset continues to be the top-seller in Japan whereas slipping to fourth place in China to this point in 2024. And that comes as Apple lowers part cargo targets for the 12 months amid provide chain challenges, pointing to a presumably down 12 months.
Reviews: iPhone market outlook blended amid gross sales decline and provide chain challenges
As predicted lately, iPhone gross sales are sliding in Asia to this point in 2024 after a fairly sturdy starting and finish to 2023. Varied stories level to slowdowns and Apple reigning in iPhone part shipments.
China’s large smartphone market slid 7% within the first six weeks of 2024. However in the identical interval, iPhone’s share dropped a whopping 24%. Why? Stiffening competitors and sliding from an enormous excessive in January 2023, in accordance with a Counterpoint Analysis report.
“Primarily, it confronted stiff competitors on the excessive finish from a resurgent Huawei whereas getting squeezed within the center on aggressive pricing from the likes of OPPO, vivo and Xiaomi,” stated Counterpoint analyst Mengmeng Zhang.
“Though the iPhone 15 is a superb machine, it has no vital upgrades from the earlier model, so shoppers really feel high quality holding on to the older-generation iPhones for now,” they added.
After taking first place in China in late 2023, iPhone dropped to fourth place in early 2024.
Picture: Counterpoint Analysis
Stronger in Japan
In the meantime, an Worldwide Knowledge Company (IDC) report confirmed Apple has retained 49% to 51% of the market since 2022, a really sturdy first-place exhibiting.
Japan’s smartphone shipments slid 3.5% 12 months over 12 months in 2023’s This autumn, having recovered a bit from steeper declines within the first half of the 12 months.
However iPhone shipments for the quarter elevated 3.4% 12 months over 12 months as Android’s fell by 8.7%.
General, although, 2023 was a bit gloomy for smartphone shipments to Japan, falling by 11.6% in comparison with 2022. iPhone slid 6.1% whereas Android plummeted 16.3%.
Apple faucets brakes on part shipments
The earlier market consensus for 2024 iPhone shipments was 220-225 million models, and it has now began to fall, transferring nearer to my earlier prediction of 200 million models. If Apple cannot launch better-than-expected GenAI companies this 12 months, Nvidia’s market cap will very… https://t.co/t5r8TXXWl9 pic.twitter.com/lngF9oIkuB
— 郭明錤 (Ming-Chi Kuo) (@mingchikuo) March 5, 2024
And information of iPhone part cargo quantity in 2024 shouldn’t be notably vivid, to this point.
Anaylyst Ming-Chi Kuo famous on X (previously Twitter) and Medium that iPhone shipments may drop by 15% 12 months over 12 months due to structural challenges within the provide chain. He stated Apple must launch “higher than anticipated GenAI companies this 12 months” to maintain up with smartphones from the likes of Samsung, or Nvidia may eclipse Apple’s market cap.
Apple might have greatest 2024 decline amongst main manufacturers
Kuo echoed stories of Huawei’s resurgence and China’s love of folding telephones as negatives for iPhone’s outlook, amongst his seven factors:
My newest provide chain survey signifies that Apple has lowered its 2024 iPhone shipments of key upstream semiconductor parts to about 200 million models (down 15% YoY). Apple might have probably the most vital decline among the many main international cell phone manufacturers in 2024.
iPhone 15 sequence and new iPhone 16 sequence shipments will decline by 10–15% YoY in 1H24 and 2H24, respectively (in comparison with iPhone 14 sequence shipments in 1H23 and iPhone 15 sequence shipments in 2H23, respectively).
The iPhone faces structural challenges that may result in a major decline in shipments in 2024, together with the emergence of a brand new paradigm in high-end cell phone design and the continued decline in shipments within the Chinese language market.
China nonetheless loves folding telephones
The brand new high-end cell phone design paradigm consists of AI (GenAI) and foldable telephones. The principle cause for the decline within the Chinese language market is the return of Huawei and the growing choice for foldable telephones amongst high-end customers as their first alternative for cellphone alternative.
Benefiting from the higher-than-expected demand as a result of excessive integration of GenAI features, Samsung has revised up the shipments of the Galaxy S24 sequence in 2024 by 5–10%, whereas Apple has revised down the cargo forecast of iPhone 15 in 1H24.
Apple’s weekly shipments in China have declined by 30–40% YoY in latest weeks, and this downward development is predicted to proceed. The principle cause for the decline is the return of Huawei and the truth that foldable telephones have steadily grow to be the primary alternative for high-end customers within the Chinese language market.
It’s anticipated that Apple is not going to launch new iPhone fashions with vital design modifications and the extra complete/differentiated GenAI ecosystem/functions till 2025 on the earliest. Till then, it’s going to probably hurt Apple’s iPhone cargo momentum and ecosystem progress.
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